The 'electric vehicle craze' marks the beginning of a turning point in China's energy consumption era
On December 17th, the website of the German magazine Der Spiegel reported that the rise in electric vehicles has led to an earlier than expected decrease in fuel consumption in China. The report is compiled as follows:
In China, bidding farewell to the boom of fuel vehicles has now opened the curtain for a turning point in energy consumption. According to the latest data from a research institution of a major Chinese oil company, China may be about to cross the historical peak of fossil fuel consumption
This research institution stated that one of the main reasons is the continuous increase in the number of electric vehicles. The research institution expects this trend to continue. It is reported that by 2035, gasoline consumption will decrease by 35% to 50%, to 80 million tons to 100 million tons, and refined oil consumption will decrease by 25% to 40%, to 240 million tons to 290 million tons. But it is expected that the consumption of aviation fuel will increase
The decline in China's oil demand is of great significance for climate protection. China is the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, with emissions far exceeding those of other countries. However, China's political leadership has been trying to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for many years. Beijing mainly hopes for wind power and photovoltaics in this regard. In addition, the country is committed to becoming an international leader in the field of electric vehicles. Because coal-fired power is still the main source of electricity, the carbon footprint of electric vehicles in the Chinese domestic market is still adversely affected by this factor, but this impact is weakening
In July of this year, the sales of new energy vehicles in China exceeded those of gasoline vehicles for the first time. This reduces China's demand for imported crude oil. Currently, there are about 30 million new energy vehicles on the roads in China, accounting for approximately 10% of the total number of vehicles
Laurie Miluwertta is an energy market analyst at the Energy and Clean Air Research Center in Helsinki. He estimated that "if the total mileage of electric vehicles is achieved by gasoline vehicles, then China's gasoline demand will increase by 14% this year, and the total oil demand will increase by about 3%." He referred to data from January to October 2024 when calculating
According to Reuters, International Energy Agency analyst Charan Healy said in early December that China's fuel demand will decline this year. This demand has already begun to stagnate in 2023
For decades, China has been the main driving force behind global oil consumption growth. Experts believe that this trend shift may mean the end of that position. The speed of China's transition to electric mobility is faster than expected. Correspondingly, China no longer needs to import so much crude oil
Analysts predict that China's crude oil imports may peak in 2025
The petrochemical industry will remain the only industry, apart from the aviation industry, that can support oil demand in the coming years. Overall, experts believe that China's total oil demand will reach its peak in the coming years
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